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ROAD-WEIGHTED RPI A BONUS FOR SIU, MVC

BY PAUL KLEE
THE SOUTHERN

Wednesday, February 2, 2005 7:23 AM CST

Editor's note: SIU plays at Bradley today. This is an analysis of how the current three-game road swing may affect the Salukis' RPI. The second of this two-part series will appear in The Southern's Dawg Digest on Thursday.

CARBONDALE -- Each year, right around the first week of March, college basketball fans become re-acquainted with three words.

Ratings Percentage Index (RPI).

Much like three other words -- "What's a Saluki?" -- this phrase can elicit scowls from fans of Southern Illinois University, who may misinterpret the RPI for something that it is not.

And the RPI is not:

A ranking of the 330 teams in Division I college basketball.

The end-all factor when the NCAA selection committee hands out at-large bids to the NCAA tournament.

A headstone transcription.

The RPI is:

A measure of a team's strength of schedule, and how a team fares against that schedule.

One of many tools that the NCAA selection committee uses when choosing at-large teams.

Important.

Something unusual happened to SIU and its RPI on Jan. 23. After a Missouri Valley Conference loss, the Salukis' RPI went up.

SIU's RPI rose from 17 to 14 on CollegeRPI.com following a 58-56 loss at Wichita State. This development was a reflection of two things: Wichita State's lofty RPI (23), and a minor adjustment made by the NCAA to its RPI formula.

That minor adjustment may turn out to be a major plus for SIU.

The Salukis play at Bradley today, Northern Iowa on Saturday and Drake on Monday. Obviously, victories will aid SIU's goal of making the NCAA tournament. But even by losing on the road, its RPI won't take the same hit as it has since the formula was created in 1981.

In mid-December, the NCAA announced that it had changed its RPI formula for the first time since 1994. In the old formula, the location of games was not taken into account.

Now, road games are "weighted," meaning a team gets more credit for winning on the road, while a team is penalized more severely for losing at home. In addition, a team's RPI does not take as great a hit after a road loss.

"If Saint Louis University comes down here and were to beat SIU, Saint Louis will get more value for that in the RPI than if Saint Louis beats Southern Illinois at home," Doug Elgin said.

Elgin, the commissioner of the Missouri Valley Conference, served as a member of the NCAA selection committee for the 1999-2002 NCAA tournaments. Elgin believes the road-weighting adjustment will help teams from non-major conferences boost their RPI, thus improving their NCAA tournament resumes.

"I think it will help any team that can go on the road and win," the commissioner said. "It's arguably the hardest thing to do in basketball is to win on the road. And losing on the road won't have as dramatic (of) an effect."

Elgin said the RPI is "only one piece of data in a field of data" that the selection committee uses when selecting and seeding teams. But the commissioner noted that it is a widely inclusive piece of data.

"When you look at what goes into the RPI -- won/loss record, strength of schedule, etc. -- those are important factors, all of which are taken into account in the selection process," Elgin said. "When the selection committee looks at the last couple of teams that are fighting to get into the field, anything that tips the scale can be a very important factor in choosing one team over another. It doesn't hurt (to have a high RPI)."

In some cases, the new road-weighting adjustment is reflected only slightly. According to CollegeRPI.com, Wichita State's RPI under the new formula is 18. Under the old formula, it would be 20.

Utah's RPI is now 23. The Utes' old RPI is 28.

SIU's RPI is 15, but would have been 23.

In other cases, however, the adjustment could mean the difference between a NCAA at-large bid and a spot on the couch during March Madness.

For example, Western Michigan's RPI under the new formula is 49. Under the old formula it would be 82.

San Francisco has an RPI of 32 under the new formula. The Dons' RPI under the old formula is 57.

Kent State jumped from 77 to 39 with the tweak. Old Dominion leapt from 62 to 31.

Why are these teams highlighted? Because they are all fighting for NCAA bids from non-major conferences, where multiple bids are often rare. (Just one non-major conference program in the last 11 seasons -- Southwest Missouri State in 1999 -- received an at-large bid without winning or sharing its league title.)

Jerry Palm, a resident of northwest Indiana and the brains behind CollegeRPI.com, said the road-weighting adjustment will vary from team to team.

But will it translate into more NCAA bids from outside the six power conferences?

"I think it remains to be seen what kind of impact it will have," Palm said. "Just looking at today's numbers (on Jan. 24), SIU is 14th, but would still be 17th in the old version. That's an insignificant difference. Vermont, on the other hand, is 17th in the new RPI, but would only be 40th in the old."

"The real test will be when the bracket comes out," Palm added. "It's one thing for non-majors to be rated higher and another for it to be reflected in the bracket."

Considering that SIU has received at-large bids to the NCAA tournament in each of the last three seasons, the non-major conference dynamo must watch the RPI closely.

In 2004, 45 of the top 47 teams in the RPI made the Big Dance. In 2003, 44 out of the top 47. In 2002 -- the start of SIU's string of NCAA appearances -- 44 of the top 45 made the tournament.

If the season ended today, the Salukis' current RPI of 15 would easily be its highest rating since the formula was created.

According to documents obtained by The Southern and used by past NCAA selection committees, the new road-weighting system could boost the RPI of SIU and the Valley to their highest points -- at least since 1992.

SIU has never finished with an RPI better than 33. The Valley, rated eighth among 31 leagues, is poised to pass the West Coast Conference, rated seventh, following the Feb. 19 ESPN Bracket Buster Saturday, which traditionally slingshots participants' RPIs.

The WCC is not a Bracket Buster participant, while the Valley has nine teams involved.

"Either (15, SIU's new RPI) or (23, old) is very good for us," Salukis head coach Chris Lowery said. "But obviously being that low could really help us in the end. It's great for recruiting right now and all that stuff. But it really doesn't mean anything because March isn't here yet.

"If in March we're still where we are RPI-wise -- in the teens or the 20s or even the 30s -- we'll be very happy."

Not everyone will be happy with the new road-weighting adjustment (see: ACC, SEC, Big East, Big XII, Pac-10 and Big Ten members), but it appears to be a step in the right direction for most of college basketball.

Before the adjustment, ratings guru Jeff Sagarin told Sports Illustrated, "The major conferences have a scam going. When you have huge imbalances between home and away games, it's irrational to ignore them."

The NCAA's recent adjustment should help balance the imbalances.

paul.klee@thesouthern.com 618-529-5454 x15085